One-glance verdict
Within fair range
$108.40 our estimate vs market $74.67
Wall Street consensus: $107.07 (-1.2% lower than our fair-value estimate)
31% below our estimate
Fundamentals snapshot
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.
OLLI · NGM · Consumer Defensive · Discount Stores
Current price
$74.67
52-week range
$60.29 - $141.74
Market cap
$4.51B
Balance sheet
Healthy
17.25x Strong cushion
Net debt $460.74M. Interest coverage shows how many times profit covers the interest bill.
What stands out
3 Rewards
2 Risks
3 rewards · 2 risks
- Reward Revenue grew 3.1% last year.
- Reward Returns 13.8% on equity, ahead of 16% of its peers.
- Risk Net debt grew 128.6% over 3 years.
- Risk Insider ownership is only 0.3% (peer median: 1.7%).
What this company does
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.
Ollie's Bargain Outlet is a retail store that buys products other companies couldn't sell, like overstocked or discontinued items, and resells them to customers at a deep discount. The company makes money by purchasing a wide variety of goods—from food and toys to furniture—at very low prices and then offering them for much less than traditional retailers. This business model's success depends heavily on its supply chain (its system for finding and acquiring these closeout goods), which must consistently find brand-name products to sell cheaply.
How the company got here
Ollie's was started in 1982 in Pennsylvania by four founders, including Mark Butler and the store's namesake, Oliver "Ollie" Rosenberg. The basic idea was to buy brand-name products that other companies couldn't sell—things like overstocked items or goods with outdated packaging—and sell them to shoppers at a huge discount. For many years, it was a small, regional chain, but it began to expand more quickly in the 2000s. A major turning point was its IPO (Initial Public Offering, when a private company first sells shares of stock to the public) in 2015, which helped it grow from a regional player into a national chain.
What it actually does
Ollie's is a discount store that sells a wide variety of brand-name goods at low prices, with the slogan "Good Stuff Cheap." The company's expert buyers find and purchase closeout merchandise (inventory a manufacturer wants to get rid of) and excess inventory from other retailers and manufacturers at a deep discount. This allows Ollie's to sell items like housewares, food, toys, flooring, and books for much less than traditional stores. The selection is always changing, creating a "treasure hunt" experience that encourages shoppers to visit often to see what new deals they can find.
Discount Retail Stores
The company operates as a single business, making all of its money by selling discounted goods in its physical stores. Unlike many retailers, Ollie's does not sell products online, focusing instead on getting customers to visit its no-frills, warehouse-style locations. The core of the business is opportunistic buying; if a major brand makes too much of a product or changes its packaging, Ollie's steps in to buy the surplus for pennies on the dollar. This single segment is responsible for all of the company's revenue (the total money earned from sales), which comes directly from shoppers paying for these bargain items at the checkout counter.
What management is betting on now
Management's main strategy is to continue opening new stores across the country, with a long-term goal of more than doubling its current number of locations. They are also focused on expanding their customer loyalty program, called "Ollie's Army," which already accounts for a large majority of sales and provides valuable data on shopper habits. The company is also taking advantage of other retailers' struggles by acquiring and converting closed stores, which is a cost-effective way to expand its footprint. By sticking to its model of selling brand-name bargains and avoiding online sales, management is betting that the "treasure hunt" experience will continue to draw in value-conscious customers.
Price history
How the share price has moved
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Loading price history…
Earnings history
Last 8 quarters — what happened
Click any quarter to read the call summary and what the numbers say.
FY2025 Q3
$5.59M
FY2025 Q4
$-35.38M
FY2026 Q1
$123.38M
FY2026 Q2
$1.96M
FY2026 Q3
$54.30M
FY2026 Q4
$-25.97M
FY2027 Q2
$20.03M
Revenue
$658.93M
Net income
$56.40M
Diluted EPS
0.92
Operating cash flow
$45.50M
Free cash flow
$20.03M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$613.62M
Net income
$46.17M
Diluted EPS
0.75
Operating cash flow
$4.76M
Free cash flow
$-25.97M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$679.56M
Net income
$61.31M
Diluted EPS
0.99
Operating cash flow
$80.71M
Free cash flow
$54.30M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$576.77M
Net income
$47.56M
Diluted EPS
0.77
Operating cash flow
$28.70M
Free cash flow
$1.96M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$667.08M
Net income
$68.55M
Diluted EPS
1.11
Operating cash flow
$147.76M
Free cash flow
$123.38M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$517.43M
Net income
$35.88M
Diluted EPS
0.58
Operating cash flow
$-4.37M
Free cash flow
$-35.38M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$578.38M
Net income
$48.98M
Diluted EPS
0.79
Operating cash flow
$43.88M
Free cash flow
$5.59M
Fetching…
Sources
Is it cheap or expensive?
Fair value $108.40 vs current price $74.67
Wall Street consensus is the average analyst price target: $107.07 (-1.2% lower than our fair-value estimate).
Our most-likely fair value is $108.40 a share — about 45.2% away from today's price of $74.67, so the stock currently looks fairly priced.
Is it drowning in debt?
Healthy
Net debt $460.7M. Interest coverage 17.3x.
Net debt
$460.74M
Interest coverage
17.25x
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.'s profit covers its interest bill about 17.3 times over. which is stronger than most peers shown here.
Healthy
Worse cushion
Baseline
Better cushion
OLLI
BASELINE
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.
Total debt $710.30M Interest coverage 17.25x This is the baseline the peer rows are being compared against.
Total debt $1.84B Interest coverage 2.76x -84% vs OLLI Carries about 6.2x less debt cushion than OLLI.
Total debt $14.18B Interest coverage 97.00x +462% vs OLLI Carries about 5.6x more debt cushion than OLLI.
Total debt $4.72B Interest coverage 71.36x +314% vs OLLI Carries about 4.1x more debt cushion than OLLI.
Total debt $5.87B Interest coverage 11.89x -31% vs OLLI Carries about 1.5x less debt cushion than OLLI.
Total debt $2.00B Interest coverage 34.71x +101% vs OLLI Carries about 2.0x more debt cushion than OLLI.
What you should know
The case for and against OLLI
3 Rewards
2 Risks
Rewards
-
Revenue grew 3.1% last year.
-
Returns 13.8% on equity, ahead of 16% of its peers.
-
Free cash flow was positive in 10/10 years.
Risks
-
Net debt grew 128.6% over 3 years.
-
Insider ownership is only 0.3% (peer median: 1.7%).
The numbers
All the key metrics, grouped by purpose
Tap any ? icon to learn what it means.
Valuation
How expensive the stock looks
P/E (TTM)
18.48x
Forward P/E
14.78x
P/B
2.40x
P/S
1.65x
EV/EBITDA
13.31x
PEG ratio
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Profitability
How much profit each dollar creates
Gross margin
40.7%
Operating margin
10.6%
Net margin
9.1%
ROE
13.8%
ROA
6.8%
Health
Liquidity and balance-sheet strength
Debt / equity
0.38x
Current ratio
2.32x
Quick ratio
0.61x
Total debt
$710.30M
Total cash
$249.56M
Growth
How the business has been compounding
Revenue TTM
$2.73B
Revenue 5Y CAGR
10.9%
EPS TTM
4.04
EPS 5Y CAGR
33.4%
Cash flow
How much cash the business throws off
Operating CF TTM
$313.34M
Free CF TTM
$194.66M
FCF margin
7.1%
Dividend
Shareholder payout
Yield
—
Payout ratio
0.0%
Last ex-div date
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