One-glance verdict
Overvalued
$89.55 our estimate vs market $368.48
Wall Street consensus: $371.73 (315.1% higher than our fair-value estimate)
311% above our estimate, beyond the bull case
Fundamentals snapshot
Burlington Stores, Inc.
BURL · NYQ · Consumer Cyclical · Apparel Retail
Current price
$368.48
52-week range
$240.49 - $378.33
Market cap
$23.19B
Balance sheet
Distressed
11.89x Adequate
Net debt $5.12B. Interest coverage shows how many times profit covers the interest bill.
What stands out
3 Rewards
2 Risks
3 rewards · 2 risks
- Reward Revenue grew 3.0% last year.
- Reward Returns 39.1% on equity, ahead of 66% of its peers.
- Risk Net debt grew 24.6% over 3 years.
- Risk Insider ownership is only 0.6% (peer median: 1.7%).
What this company does
Burlington Stores, Inc.
Burlington is an off-price store that sells brand-name clothing, home goods, and other merchandise at a discount. The company makes money by buying excess inventory (the leftover products that brands and other stores couldn't sell) at a low price and passing the savings to shoppers. This business model attracts customers looking for a bargain, which can help the company perform well even when people are trying to spend less.
How the company got here
Burlington started in 1972 as a single store in New Jersey called Burlington Coat Factory, focusing on selling coats at a discount. [3, 8] Over the years, it expanded across the country and added more product types, like clothing, home goods, and baby items. [8, 9] To show it was more than just a coat seller, the company changed its name to Burlington Stores. [3] After being bought by a private company and then becoming publicly traded on the stock market again in 2013, it has continued to grow into a major national retailer. [4, 8]
What it actually does
Burlington is an 'off-price' retailer, which means it operates on a simple but powerful idea: buy low and sell low. [2, 14] The company buys brand-name merchandise from other manufacturers and retailers who have produced too much or need to clear out inventory (the unsold items in their warehouses and stores). [5, 14] It then sells these items to shoppers at prices significantly lower than what department stores would charge, creating a 'treasure hunt' experience where customers can find new deals on every visit. [5, 11] Burlington makes its money almost entirely from selling these physical goods in its hundreds of stores across the U.S. and Puerto Rico. [4, 10]
Off-Price Retail Sales
The company operates as one main business: selling a wide variety of discounted goods directly to customers in its physical stores. [4] This includes everything from women's and men's clothing, shoes, and accessories to home decor, toys, and beauty products. [1, 13] Unlike a traditional department store that buys specific product lines in advance, Burlington's buyers are constantly looking for opportunistic deals from thousands of vendors. [14] This single, focused approach to off-price retail is how the entire company generates its revenue (the total money it brings in from sales). [2, 4]
What management is betting on now
The company's main strategy is called 'Burlington 2.0,' which focuses on smart growth and efficiency. [3, 4] A key part of this plan is opening new stores that are smaller and more profitable than its older, larger locations. [3, 11] Management is also pushing for aggressive expansion, with a long-term goal of operating 2,000 stores nationwide. [3, 7] By improving its supply chain (the system of getting products from the seller to the store shelves) and offering compelling bargains, the company aims to attract more value-conscious shoppers and increase its market share (its slice of the total retail pie). [1, 4]
Price history
How the share price has moved
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Loading price history…
Earnings history
Last 8 quarters — what happened
Click any quarter to read the call summary and what the numbers say.
FY2025 Q3
$-35.17M
FY2025 Q4
$-56.22M
FY2026 Q1
$189.84M
FY2026 Q2
$-438.61M
FY2026 Q3
$-101.00K
FY2026 Q4
$-109.62M
FY2027 Q2
$-227.26M
Revenue
$2.86B
Net income
$114.74M
Diluted EPS
1.79
Operating cash flow
$61.47M
Free cash flow
$-227.26M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$2.71B
Net income
$104.75M
Diluted EPS
1.63
Operating cash flow
$143.33M
Free cash flow
$-109.62M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$2.71B
Net income
$94.19M
Diluted EPS
1.47
Operating cash flow
$179.44M
Free cash flow
$-101.00K
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$2.50B
Net income
$100.83M
Diluted EPS
1.58
Operating cash flow
$-28.91M
Free cash flow
$-438.61M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$3.28B
Net income
$260.77M
Diluted EPS
4.03
Operating cash flow
$543.16M
Free cash flow
$189.84M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$2.53B
Net income
$90.60M
Diluted EPS
1.40
Operating cash flow
$110.41M
Free cash flow
$-56.22M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$2.47B
Net income
$73.76M
Diluted EPS
1.15
Operating cash flow
$160.43M
Free cash flow
$-35.17M
Fetching…
Sources
Is it cheap or expensive?
Fair value $89.55 vs current price $368.48
Wall Street consensus is the average analyst price target: $371.73 (315.1% higher than our fair-value estimate).
Our most-likely fair value is $89.55 a share — about 75.7% below today's price of $368.48, so the stock currently looks expensive (overvalued).
Is it drowning in debt?
Distressed
Net debt $5.1B. Interest coverage 11.9x.
Net debt
$5.12B
Interest coverage
11.89x
Burlington Stores, Inc.'s profit covers its interest bill about 11.9 times over.
Distressed
Worse cushion
Baseline
Better cushion
BURL
BASELINE
Burlington Stores, Inc.
Total debt $5.87B Interest coverage 11.89x This is the baseline the peer rows are being compared against.
Total debt $14.18B Interest coverage 97.00x +716% vs BURL Carries about 8.2x more debt cushion than BURL.
Total debt $4.72B Interest coverage 71.36x +500% vs BURL Carries about 6.0x more debt cushion than BURL.
Total debt $710.30M Interest coverage 17.25x +45% vs BURL Carries about 1.5x more debt cushion than BURL.
Total debt $2.00B Interest coverage 34.71x +192% vs BURL Carries about 2.9x more debt cushion than BURL.
Total debt $609.02M Interest coverage 7.01x -41% vs BURL Carries about 1.7x less debt cushion than BURL.
What you should know
The case for and against BURL
3 Rewards
2 Risks
Rewards
-
Revenue grew 3.0% last year.
-
Returns 39.1% on equity, ahead of 66% of its peers.
-
Free cash flow was positive in 8/10 years.
Risks
-
Net debt grew 24.6% over 3 years.
-
Insider ownership is only 0.6% (peer median: 1.7%).
The numbers
All the key metrics, grouped by purpose
Tap any ? icon to learn what it means.
Valuation
How expensive the stock looks
P/E (TTM)
37.87x
Forward P/E
26.72x
P/B
12.48x
P/S
1.95x
EV/EBITDA
21.87x
PEG ratio
0.92x
Profitability
How much profit each dollar creates
Gross margin
43.9%
Operating margin
5.9%
Net margin
5.2%
ROE
39.1%
ROA
6.1%
Health
Liquidity and balance-sheet strength
Debt / equity
3.20x
Current ratio
1.16x
Quick ratio
0.40x
Total debt
$5.87B
Total cash
$747.36M
Growth
How the business has been compounding
Revenue TTM
$11.92B
Revenue 5Y CAGR
5.5%
EPS TTM
9.73
EPS 5Y CAGR
39.7%
Cash flow
How much cash the business throws off
Operating CF TTM
$1.32B
Free CF TTM
$171.59M
FCF margin
1.4%
Dividend
Shareholder payout
Yield
—
Payout ratio
0.0%
Last ex-div date
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